The development trend of new energy vehicles in the future is electrification, intelligence, networking, lightweight, and sharing. These five modernizations will definitely put forward higher requirements for power lithium batteries. What will the future power lithium batteries look like?
This is the current application status of power lithium batteries. At present, lead-acid batteries are mainly used in the start-stop power supply of some low-speed vehicles and cars. Lead-acid batteries are cheap, but have a very low energy density. Nickel-metal hydride batteries are mainly used in Japanese hybrid vehicles and energy storage, because the energy density of nickel-metal hydride batteries is a little higher than that of lead-acid, and the price is a little cheaper than lithium-ion batteries. With the development of new energy vehicles, the energy density and life of power lithium batteries are required to be higher, so lithium-ion batteries are currently the mainstream power lithium batteries, widely used in HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCV, etc.
This is the development plan proposed by the three development departments of our country for lithium-ion batteries. From the three plans, high-energy-density batteries are the future development direction. They all require the energy density of batteries to reach 300Wh/Kg in 2020, and strive to achieve 350Wh/Kg also puts forward higher requirements on the cost and the energy density of the battery system. I will not describe them here one by one. You have seen many of them before.
This is the country's subsidy policy in 2018, which you should know very well. I just made a summary of the 2018 subsidy policy. First, in terms of cruising range, the longer the cruising range, the more subsidies; second, encourage car companies to develop models with higher cruising range, and cancel subsidies for cars with a cruising range of less than 150 kilometers; third, the battery system requires higher energy density. Because the mileage requirements are higher.
In the lithium battery industry, China, Japan and South Korea are three pillars, competing in terms of battery energy density and cost. Korean companies have expanded their production on a large scale in my country. The table shows the research progress of Japanese and Korean companies’ high-energy-density batteries. At present, the energy density of Japanese and Korean batteries is above 250Wh/Kg, which is comparable to the domestic level. It is also consistent to achieve the goal of 300Wh/Kg in 2020. The current research and development level is at the same level, but safety research needs to be strengthened. LG said at the beginning of this year that it will release a NCM811 system battery, but mass production has been postponed.see more:How to tell if a lithium ion battery is bad
To improve the energy density of a single battery, a new electrochemical system must be developed. In 2017, the 170~220Wh/kg electrochemical system is lithium manganese oxide, lithium iron phosphate, medium nickel ternary, lithium manganate doped medium nickel ternary pair Graphite system, 240~260Wh/kg electrochemical system in 2018 is medium-high nickel ternary, lithium manganate doped medium-high nickel ternary pair silicon carbon or silicon oxygen negative electrode, in 2020 the electrochemical system above 300Wh/kg should use high nickel , Lithium-rich manganese-based positive electrode, high-voltage lithium manganate to silicon carbon or silicon oxygen negative electrode.
In response to the needs of large-scale energy storage and the rapid development of electric vehicles, high specific energy, high power, long life and low cost key materials and their preparation technologies are important directions for the development of lithium-ion batteries, energy density, life, cost, and safety. Indicators should be taken into consideration. High specific energy is the unremitting pursuit of the lithium battery industry. In 2016, 2022, and 2025, these indicators will be greatly improved. In the future, we will not have to worry about the energy density, lifespan, and safety of power lithium batteries.
At present, there are three mature packaging methods for power lithium batteries, soft pack, square, and cylinder. The three packaging forms of batteries have their own advantages and disadvantages. Comparing the three, soft pack batteries have high specific capacity, good safety, long cycle life, small internal resistance, and flexible design, but poor consistency, high cost, and prone to accidents. Leakage. Due to the low degree of automation of soft-pack lithium-ion battery equipment in the past few years, the consistency will be poor, but at present, domestic and foreign equipment companies have increased investment in research and development. The third factory of Thornton New Energy Company currently has an automation degree of more than 90% of the lithium-ion battery production line equipment, and the consistency has been better resolved. Soft-pack batteries will be the future development trend.
The second part introduces the technical characteristics of the pouch battery. Under the same capacity, the pouch battery has the smallest weight and volume; under the same volume, the pouch battery has the highest capacity. Under other conditions being the same, the pouch battery has the highest volumetric energy density and mass capacity density compared to aluminum shells and cylinders. At present, our data comes from Gaogong lithium battery.
At present, it is important to further improve the energy density of the battery system from the aspects of battery cell design, module, and Pack lightweight. Since 2017, domestic mainstream battery factories have increased their ternary layout, and now high-nickel, high-voltage ternary and silicon carbon are the mainstream technical routes. From 200-280, change positive electrode, from low nickel to high nickel, or low pressure to high pressure; 280-300, change negative electrode, from graphite to silicon carbon; 300-350, ternary change to lithium-rich manganese base; above 350, or change The electrolyte changes from liquid to solid, or replaces the lithium-ion battery system, and develops lithium-sulfur batteries or all-solid-state batteries.
Pack is lightweight and can do the job in many ways. Some lightweight materials can be used, some designs can be optimized, and some simulations can be done in advance with the assistance of CAE. In terms of batteries, you can choose some batteries with high energy density and standardized battery size. For example, the 100302 battery meets both the national standard and the VDA size. You can also optimize the design of the box and modules. In addition, some optimization can also be done in manufacturing engineering and structural design. Pack lightweight is also the future trend.Also read:48v lithium ion battery 400ah
This is the data of the energy density of the pouch battery system equipped with the mainstream models of some first-class foreign OEMs in recent years. These models mainly use soft-pack batteries. Hyundai has two vehicles equipped with LGC's NCM811 system batteries this year. Mass production of this battery has reportedly been delayed. There may be three reasons for my personal analysis: First, the manufacturing cost of NCM811 materials and batteries is high. Although the content of cobalt is reduced, the manufacturing process is complicated and requires high environmental humidity; second, the thermal stability of NCM811 materials is relatively low. Poor, resulting in low safety of NCM811 system batteries; Third, the cycle life of NCM811 system batteries is short, which may not be able to meet the needs of the entire vehicle.
According to our statistics on the accident rates of different types of batteries, in 2016-17, there were 29 and 16 domestic new energy vehicle fire accidents respectively. In terms of matching models, square battery accidents are relatively high, both the number of accidents and the number of vehicles accounted for more than half; in the first half of 2018, a total of 8 cases occurred in China, half of which were square and half cylindrical; according to statistical data, soft pack batteries Security is relatively the highest. The soft-pack lithium-ion battery uses aluminum-plastic film as the packaging shell. In the event of a safety hazard, the soft-pack lithium-ion battery will only burst open and release energy from the seal, unlike the steel-cased aluminum-cased lithium-ion battery. In that way, there will be a large internal pressure and an explosion will occur. At present, most of the soft-pack lithium-ion batteries still use liquid electrolytes, and a few use gel-state electrolytes. With the development of energy density, the development of solid-state lithium-ion batteries is an inevitable trend, and the safety of lithium-ion batteries will be further improved.
We also made statistics on the cost of different types of batteries. In terms of packaging costs, the packaging costs of cylindrical, square, and soft packs are similar, with little difference. But in terms of the composition of packaging materials, the cost of the square aluminum shell is the highest. In order to reduce the cost per Wh of the square aluminum shell, the battery capacity must be increased, but as the cost decreases, the safety will also decrease, and it may be hot. Out of control, there are some heat transfer speeds in the middle that will be limited. The cost of packaging materials for soft-pack batteries with different capacities is similar, and it is relatively more difficult to reduce the cost per unit watt-hour. The capacity of the pouch battery is generally around 50~60Ah.
We analyzed the weight and cost ratio of each component of the pouch battery. It is found that the weight of aluminum-plastic film accounts for 3.0%, but the cost accounts for 8% of the total cost of the entire lithium-ion battery. It occupies the third place in the cost structure, and the cost accounts for a large proportion. This is mainly due to the preparation process and market conditions of the aluminum-plastic film. At present, more than 90% of the aluminum-plastic films used in domestic soft pack power lithium batteries are imported.
Here is a brief introduction to the aluminum-plastic film structure. Aluminum-plastic film is mainly composed of three layers: outer nylon layer, middle aluminum layer, and inner CPP/PP layer. Special aluminum layer and CPP/PP layer have high technical barriers and strict product requirements. The global aluminum-plastic film market is still dominated by Japan and South Korea. The company is monopolized, and the two giants of Japan DNP and Showa Denko have a combined market share of more than 70%. DNP and Showa Denko are representative companies of the thermal method and the dry method, respectively.
The common technical problems encountered by domestic aluminum-plastic films are that the domestic aluminum foil has defects in surface treatment and poor stability. In addition, the CPP layer material has not been completely overcome, and there are problems in insulation and high temperature resistance. In recent years, domestic aluminum-plastic film companies have been constantly improving and updating materials, technology, equipment, etc., and have qualitatively improved product quality, product consistency, and electrolyte resistance. ATL, Coslight, etc. have begun to apply digital domestic aluminum-plastic films in batches; at the same time, in the field of power lithium batteries, Selen Technology has successfully introduced aluminum-plastic film products into domestic power lithium battery companies through the acquisition of Japan's T&T's mature aluminum-plastic film factory and patented technology . The localization of domestic companies has become unstoppable through the development of endogenous breakthroughs in technology, introduction and absorption, and extensional acquisitions.
After the localization of aluminum-plastic film, the cost of soft-pack power lithium batteries will be reduced. Domestic aluminum-plastic film companies include Selen Technology, Zijiang Company, Dao Ming Optics, Foster, etc. After the localization of aluminum-plastic film, the cost of aluminum-plastic film is reduced by 5-7 yuan per square meter, and the overall cost of soft-pack power lithium batteries is reduced by about 1.5%, which can accelerate the increase in the market share of soft-pack batteries in the new energy vehicle market.
The third part introduces the marketization trend of pouch batteries. The output of the three types of batteries accounted for a large proportion, among which square shell batteries accounted for a large proportion. With the characteristics of high energy density, good safety performance and flexible design, soft-pack batteries are expected to accelerate the penetration rate of soft-pack batteries in the new energy vehicle market. At present, the market share of pouch batteries in new energy passenger vehicles is still relatively high. This is the proportion of the number of global new energy passenger vehicles (top20) equipped with batteries of different structures in 2017 according to the statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery. Among them, soft pack batteries accounted for 37.4%, higher than square aluminum shell batteries (32.8%); The proportion of the number of new energy passenger vehicles (top20) in my country equipped with batteries of different structures in a year, of which soft-pack batteries accounted for 44.9%, which is slightly lower than that of square aluminum-case batteries (48.7%). It is estimated that the demand for power lithium batteries of ternary materials will rise to 71.6GWh in 2020, accounting for about 50% from the current 22%. For ternary power lithium batteries, the use of soft pack batteries accounts for a large proportion.
According to the data of Gaogong Lithium Battery, the demand for power soft pack batteries in 2017 was 6.5GWh, and the market penetration rate was 12%. The industry expects that the demand for power soft pack batteries will reach 10.9GWh in 2018, with a market penetration rate of 14%; in 2020, the market demand will reach 79.4GWh, and the penetration rate will increase to 40%. Reasons: First, the market demand for high-energy-density batteries, to achieve the target of 300Wh/kg batteries, only soft packs can be used. Lishen, Guoxuan, and CATL already have soft pack wires; second, lithium-sulfur batteries and all-solid-state batteries , as far as the current process, equipment, and structural design are suitable for the soft-pack battery route; third, safety issues, soft-pack batteries are relatively safer.
The fourth part introduces our Thornton New Energy Company. Thornton New Energy Company is affiliated to Sound Group. Our Sound Group was established in 1993. At present, our business covers water resources, water ecology, solid waste treatment, sanitation, renewable resources, new energy, etc. Our group is currently holding Participated in 2 listed companies, one is Sound International and the other is Tus-Sound. The brand value of Sound has reached 15.2 billion, and the group's total assets are more than 40 billion. Our group has made a layout in the new energy industry, and the layout is relatively complete, including batteries, motors, electronic controls, energy storage, charging piles, and new energy vehicles. And our Thornton New Energy has also formed a relatively complete industrial layout in the battery sector.
Thornton New Energy Company was established in 2011 with a registered capital of 2.55 billion. The company has formed a complete industrial chain from the precursor of cathode materials, cathode materials, single cells, battery systems, battery management, battery cloud platform management, battery cascade utilization, and waste battery recycling. The state requires that the cost of a battery cell be controlled at about 0.6 yuan in 2020, which is definitely not achieved through the cost control of current materials. Only by improving the entire industrial chain can costs be better controlled after 2020.
At present, the battery safety of our company is the core, and there is no product without safety. We have also done a lot of work in this area of security. We have a fault classification processing mechanism, a safety production guarantee system, a three-level inspection system, and an information management and control traceability system. From 2014 to now, tens of thousands of pure electric vehicles have been equipped with our company's batteries, and so far there has been no safety accident, which is something we are quite proud of.
At present, the output of Thornton new energy batteries has reached 9GWh, ranking among the top five and top six in China. In 2020, the output will reach 14GWh. Thornton New Energy will build a 100 billion industrial cluster park in Xiangtan.
The fifth part is the conclusion. Due to time constraints, I will conclude with one sentence: the proportions of the three types of batteries are not small, but soft-pack batteries rely on the characteristics of high energy density, good safety performance and flexible design, coupled with the trend of localization of aluminum-plastic films. , It is expected to accelerate the increase of the penetration rate of soft-pack batteries in the new energy vehicle market; in 2020, the penetration rate of soft-pack batteries in power lithium batteries is expected to increase to 40%, reaching 79.4GWh.
The soft pack and the square aluminum shell battery are a little different. The soft pack is in a state of poor liquid, while the aluminum shell battery is in a state of rich liquid. The amount of electrolyte that can flow in a fresh pouch battery is very small, and the pouch battery can retain the liquid through the pole piece and diaphragm. As the cycle progresses, the electrolyte is also continuously consumed. If the aluminum-plastic film is damaged, there will be no electrolyte leakage. In addition, the packaging ability of the equipment is better now.
We will make some improvements in pole piece compaction and diaphragm. The positive and negative electrodes of the pouch battery are less compact than the aluminum shell battery, and the diaphragm is also different. In terms of diaphragm technology, we will make some improvements, such as coating a layer of PVDF or mixing with ceramics. The cycle performance can be guaranteed by the liquid absorption of the pole piece and the diaphragm itself. At present, the 1C charge/1C discharge cycle life of our pouch battery products is more than 2000 times, fully meeting the needs of electric vehicles. In addition, when there is a certain pressure outside, the cycle performance of the pouch battery will be much higher than that under no pressure. The pouch battery is under pressure in the Pack.
We divide it into two parts, and we will screen the waste batteries when they come back. In the past few years, there was no traceability system for batteries, such as big data or MES systems. The status of decommissioned batteries could not be judged, and could only be screened by the results of charge and discharge tests. At present, the country has requirements, and the company also has this awareness. In the battery preparation process, MES system is installed, and the battery pack of the vehicle has big data. After the battery is decommissioned, we first analyze the use status of the battery pack through the battery big data. Are there instances of abuse, consistency issues, or other visible issues. First of all, the selected battery packs are directly used in low-speed vehicles or other subdivisions; secondly, if they cannot be used directly, the modules are disassembled, and the selected modules are reassembled to form new battery packs for use in low-speed vehicles or other fields. Subdivided fields; Finally, some modules that cannot be used again are directly destructively disassembled. Due to the high economic value of recycling resources such as nickel and cobalt, they are more suitable for recycling. At present, Thornton has conducted a series of research on the recycling of ternary soft-pack batteries, including cascade utilization of waste power lithium battery packs, rapid battery discharge, dismantling of battery packs, resource extraction and reuse, etc.
The country has legislation that all data cannot be bought or sold, but we will talk to OEMs. OEMs have data storage, and we will analyze the data together through some business models. In addition, OEMs are the main body of recycling batteries, I believe they would like to have such a company to do it with them.
In the next five years, conventional lithium-ion batteries will still be the mainstay. After five years, lithium-sulfur batteries and all-solid-state batteries may be used on a large scale in electric vehicles. For now, lithium-sulfur batteries and all-solid-state batteries are mainly used in 3C or drones. In terms of electric passenger vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells may not be used on a large scale until at least ten years later, but in terms of electric commercial vehicles, it may be earlier, but it will also be five years later.